题目：用指数分解和解耦分析巴基斯坦电力消费(Analysis of electricity consumption in Pakistan using index decomposition and decoupling approach)

作者：林伯强*，Muhammad Yousaf Raza

期刊：能源(Energy)

详细：214卷，2021年1月

DOI：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118888

文献导读：

能源是国家经济增长的重要动力。在各类能源中，电力是一种用途非常广泛的能源，它几乎可以为每一个部门提供燃料。巴基斯坦电力需求部分取决于工业（25.7%）、农业（9.5%）和商业（8%）等。巴基斯坦在1989年的用电量为217.6万吨油当量（Mtoe），2018年则攀升至870.8万吨油当量。可见，巴基斯坦政府需要寻求替代能源以减轻电力消耗负担。

许多以往的研究探讨了各国电力消费与经济发展之间的因果关系。而本研究的动机为考察影响巴基斯坦能源消费和经济发展的因素。具体来说，本文采用了指数分解分析（IDA）和解耦分析（DA）方法，评估了各个经济部门对电力消耗的依赖性。最后，本研究还提出了与可持续发展相关的政策。

Abstract: Electricity consumption plays a significant role in increasing the share of total energy consumption worldwide and has a close association with the economy. This research analyzes the factors in two ways. First, this study estimates the electricity consumption in Pakistan during 1989–2018 using Index Decomposition Analysis between share of electricity consumption, economic development, energy intensity, per capita economy, and population. Second, an appropriate decoupling analysis method is taken to evaluate the relationship between related variables and the process of sustainable growth. These analyses are based on both sectorial and national levels. The outcomes show that the economic structure sector effect was the major driving factor growing total electricity consumption in Pakistan, and energy intensity occurred with positive fluctuations during 1989–2018. The agriculture, industrial, and domestic sectors were the top three sectors that increased electricity consumption. The effects of electricity variations caused by GDP growth and showed seven decoupling states during the whole period. Finally, in recent years, the agriculture sector has a weak decoupling, while energy-intensive sectors had an expensive decoupling and transferred to a weak decoupling over the future period. Consequently, electricity production, energy policies, and energy management need to be better integrated with economic planning exercises.

Keywords: Electricity consumption; Index decomposition analysis; Decoupling analysisPakistan