题目：从与能源相关的二氧化碳排放动态变化评估撒哈拉以南非洲的低碳发展(Assessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s low carbon development through the dynamics of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions)

作者：林伯强*，Stephen Duah Agyeman

期刊：清洁生产(Journal of Cleaner Production)

详细：274卷, 2020年11月20日, 122676

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122676

文献导读：

  现有文献对非洲二氧化碳排放的研究较少，特别是关于撒哈拉以南的非洲（SSA）的研究。在相关文献的讨论中，能源消费对二氧化碳排放的影响主要侧重于因果关系分析，而缺乏对其动态影响的讨论。虽然利用Kaya恒等式模型进行因子分解分析可以提供与低碳能源转型相关的重要分析，但关于SSA中二氧化碳排放相关的研究尚待探索。2015年，SSA的能源消费结构中的生物质能占比为81%，但在近年来逐渐转向化石燃料，这种燃料替代对低碳能源转型的影响在现有文献中尚需研究。此外，清洁能源消费如何影响SSA的低碳能源转型，在现有文献中也未得到回答。

因此，本文应用扩展的Kaya恒等式分解和自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型对以下问题提供了实证解答：（1）能源相关驱动因素对SSA的短期和长期二氧化碳排放变化有什么影响？（2）这些因素对未来二氧化碳排放变化的敏感性如何？（3）从占主导地位的生物质消费逐步过渡到化石能源使用对SSA的二氧化碳排放有何影响？（4）清洁能源消费在SSA能源结构中的扩大对二氧化碳排放有什么影响？（5）根据SSA能源相关的二氧化碳排放趋势，2030年的排放水平和减排潜力能达到多少？

Abstract: One major drawback of climate change agreements including the recent 21st Conference of the Parties is focusing mainly on countries or regions with very high contribution to global emission rise but neglecting potential emitters. With Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) been one such potential region, this paper applies the extended Kaya Identity Decomposition to investigate the dynamic impact of energy-related driving factors on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and its future trend in SSA. Employing the Autoregressive distributed lag model analysis for the period 1980 to 2014 reveals carbon intensity and “transition from biomass to fossil fuel energy” as the major long run and short run drivers of CO2 emissions increase respectively while “potential of penetration of clean energy in the energy consumption mix” is the only driver of both short and long run CO2 emissions decrease. Energy intensity and per capita GDP (supported by substantial household self-consumption of fuel) weakly and positively impact CO2 emissions in SSA. The dynamic forecasting analysis reveals possible low carbon energy path towards 2030. We propose transport sector energy efficiency improvement, use of natural gas and renewables to improve the region’s high energy poverty, improvement of household-self consumption paying attention to cleaner and safer energy and others.

Keywords: Kaya identity, Carbon dioxide emissions, ARDL model, Energy intensity, Carbon intensity, Substitution effect