题目：巴基斯坦煤炭与经济发展：能源的必要性(Coal and economic development in Pakistan: A necessity of energy source)

作者：林伯强*，Muhammad Yousaf Raza

期刊：能源(Energy)

详细：207卷，2020年9月，118244

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118244

文献导读：

巴基斯坦的煤炭储量丰富达到1851.75亿吨，而且价格低廉，具有成本优势。因此，巴基斯坦目前的能源需求主要依靠煤炭满足。特别是在过去的十年里，替代能源发展计划（AEDP）、中巴经济走廊（CPEC）、2025年愿景、2035愿景等倡议和INDC项目促进了巴基斯坦能源和经济的发展，巴基斯坦一直在努力推动煤炭资源的利用。2018年，巴基斯坦的煤炭主要用于水泥工业（54.4%）、砖窑（41.5%）、发电厂（2.6%）和焦炭使用（1.75%）。由于煤炭资源丰富，且其成本具有竞争力，因此，煤炭资源被视为保持巴基斯坦持续增长的动力。根据巴基斯坦的能源展望报告，从长期来看，巴基斯坦有必要进一步勘探俾路支省、旁遮普省、开伯尔-普什图省（KPK）和查谟和克什米尔（AJK）的煤炭储量。

以往文献大多侧重于针对巴基斯坦的行业能源消费、燃料进口、温室气体减排、能源安全等议题进行分析，利用LMDI和投入产出方法来对巴基斯坦煤炭消费增长的研究较为有限。本文旨在开发一种适用于具有复杂煤炭使用系统的LMDI技术，并使用该方法估计了巴基斯坦煤炭消费增长的影响因素。本文主要解决以下问题：什么是直接和间接的煤炭消费？巴基斯坦的煤炭消费是否会继续增加？未来煤炭消费将对巴基斯坦的能源利用情况产生什么影响？本研究从煤炭直接利用的角度探讨不同时期煤炭使用的驱动因素，从直接或间接的视角探讨巴基斯坦的煤炭消费情况。

Abstract: In this research, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) and the Input-Output (I–O) models were used to explore the determinants of coal consumption change during 1999–2018 in Pakistan. Some novel factors industrial structure, energy intensity (EI), economic scale, energy mix, and personified coal consumption were chosen and added to the LMDI and I–O models. The aim is to estimate the factors’ effects of various sectors that might provide a new way for policy-makers. The results show: (1) the variations in the driving factors industrial, cement, Brick-kilns, and power sectors are growing. (2) The industrial structure effect increasing coal consumption significantly, while energy mix and EI are growing energy efficiency from 2014 to 2018. The economic scale effects played a major role in coal consumption during 1999–2018, while EI, industrial, and energy mix have mixed effects. (3) The economic scale is the only factor which is stable and increasing Pakistan’s coal consumption. (4) From the LMDI, the economic scale effect is stable while I–O expresses that EI, energy mix and a trend in the industrial structure effects are key motives in boosting in coal consumption. It is suggested coal reserve of 185.175 billion tons can significantly improve social, economic, and energy in Pakistan.

Keywords: Personified coal consumption, Coal import, Coal production, LMDII–O analysis, Pakistan