题目：燃料间替代对加纳能源强度的影响(Impact of inter-fuel substitution on energy intensity in Ghana)

作者：林伯强*，Hermas Abudu

期刊：能源前沿(Frontiers in Energy)

详细：14卷，2019年12月，27-41页

DOI：https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s11708-019-0656-5

文献导读：

能源是支持经济体从低技术阶段过渡到工业化发展阶段的关键。除了劳动力和资本要素外，能源要素投入也是经济增长的主要决定因素之一。能源部门被视为加纳经济做出贡献的重要部门，在经济增长中发挥了重要作用。加纳的能源结构主要是石油（47%）和生物质（39%）和电力（14%），其它的由可再生能源和水力资源组成。

以往很多文献采用了参数或非参数模型方法估计了能源消费和经济增长之间（双向、守恒、增长和中性）的关系。然而，这些研究并未全面考察影响加纳能源强度和能源效率的关键因素，以及其他宏观经济因素可能导致的反弹效应。本文拟回答以下两个问题：在不影响经济增长的情况下，如何通过节能提升加纳环境的可持续性？能源与其他投入要素对加纳经济增长的替代率和贡献率是多少？基于2000-2015年的数据，采用超越对数生产函数和岭回归方法，本文对上述问题进行了研究。

本文得到的结论具有以下两点政策含义：首先，设计并实施燃料间替代的政策不仅可以降低能源强度，还可以提高能源效率，最终减少二氧化碳的排放。其次，建议进行智慧能源和云能源解决方案开发，以及能源审计等方面的能源技术创新来解决终端电力损失与能源浪费。

Abstract：

Energy intensity and elasticity, together with inter-fuel substitution are key issues in the current development stage of Ghana. Trans-log production and ridge regression are applied for studying these issues with a data range of 2000-2015. The current energy dynamics reveal the expected inverse relationship: higher energy intensity and lower elasticity with economic growth. There are evidences of energy-economic challenges: high energy cost, inefficiency and backfire rebound effect. The implications are higher energy losses in the system, more consumption of lower-quality energy together with low energy technology innovation. Energy is wasted and directly not productive with economic activities. It is observed further that the higher energy intensity invariably increases CO2 emission because approximately 95% of total energy is derived from hydrocarbons and biomass. An inter-fuel substitution future scenario design was further conducted and the results were positive with growth, lower energy intensity, and improved energy efficiency. Therefore, government and energy policymakers should improve energy efficiency, cost, and productiveness. That is, they should change energy compositions and augment energy technology innovation, thus, increasing renewable share to 15% by 2026, reducing wood and charcoal by about 69%, and increasing natural gas to about 776%. Energy policymakers should enhance the installation of smart energy, cloud energy solution, tokenization of energy system and storage.

Keywords: energy intensity, energy elasticity, inter-fuel substitution prospects, energy contribution, Translog production approach, ridge regression.