题目：巴基斯坦交通部门二氧化碳排放的脱钩与减排潜力分析(Decoupling and mitigation potential analysis of CO₂ emissions from Pakistan's transport sector)

作者：Muhammad Yousaf Raza; 林伯强*

期刊：全环境科学(Science of The Total Environment)

详细：730卷， 2020年8月15日，139000

DOI：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139000

文献导读：

环境变化及其对各个国家社会、自然系统和经济的影响已成为全球关注的焦点。这些问题主要是由化石燃料的燃烧造成的，其中运输部门是全球二氧化碳排放的主要贡献者。研究表明，二氧化碳是温室气体中排放量最大的最大的温室排放气体，约占全球温室气体排放量的75%（IPCC）。温室气体排放是导致气候变化的主要原因，2010年以来，巴基斯坦因气候变化问题导致的经济损失超过了96亿美元。

运输部门是巴基斯坦最大的能源利用和二氧化碳排放部门，贡献了巴基斯坦13.04%的国内生产总值和6%的就业。到目前为止，许多学者对交通部门的二氧化碳排放问题给予了关注。运输部门的能源消耗（化石燃料）与国内生产总值之间的脱钩分析是另一个令人担忧的问题。经合组织认为，脱钩是一个将金融增长与生态富裕联系起来的过程。

为此，本文主要研究以下几个问题：（1）本文利用LMDI和Tapio技术对巴基斯坦运输部门二氧化碳排放的驱动因素进行了分类。（2）本文构建了脱钩指标，可以用来反映经济增长对巴基斯坦交通部门二氧化碳排放依赖程度的影响。（3）本文提出了一个概念性的减排模型，该模型可以估计运输部门碳排放的减排潜力。（4）基于脱钩指数方程，本文采用Tapio的脱钩指数与拟合线进行拟合，并预测了2019-2030年的节能潜力、GDP和CO₂排放。

Abstract:

The transport sector has become one of the major economic, huge fossil fuel energy consumption, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emitting sector of Pakistan. This study applies the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) and Tapio's decoupling approach to estimate decoupling state and mitigation potential of CO₂ emissions from the transport sector during 1984-2018. LMDI technique is applied to detect the influencing variables (i.e. carbon coefficient, fuel consumption, total energy consumption, and turn over economy), which oversee CO₂ emissions. The outcomes show that CO₂ coefficient effect is the factor which is decreasing CO₂ emissions while economic growth (EG) effect is the factor which is growing CO₂ emissions. The decoupling index is also applied to influencing factors which reflect the EG factors on CO₂ emissions from the transport sector. The consequences confirm that during 1984-2018, the CO₂ emissions show an expensive coupling with EG. Weak decoupling occurred only in the sub-periods 1999-2003, 2004-2008, and 2009-2013. Similarly, the CO₂ emissions occurred from only three decoupling grades. Furthermore, a mitigation model based on the above impacting variables estimates the mitigation rate of CO₂ emissions and showed that the CO₂ mitigation seemed in 1999-2003, 2004-2008, and 2009-2013. Finally, forecasting outcomes of Tapio decoupling index show a weak decoupling during 2018-2030. Therefore, based on the empirical outcomes, this study puts forward a few policy suggestions to efficiently enhance the decoupling between Pakistan's transport CO₂ emissions and EG.

Keywords: Pakistan's transport sector; CO₂ emissions; LMDI; Decoupling analysis; Mitigation rate