题目：能源安全指标和二氧化碳排放分析：一个发展中经济体的案例（Analysis of energy security indicators and CO2 emissions. A case from a developing economy）

作者：林伯强*；Muhammad Yousaf Raza

期刊：能源（Energy）

详细：200期，2020年6月，117575

DOI：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117575

文献导读：

能源安全是地区和国家调节经济增长、经济地位和发展水平的关键因素。能源消费提高了一个国家的生活水平和经济效益，但是由于技术和工业的竞争，巴基斯坦的能源需求（ED）正以高于其最初能源供应的水平增长。目前，随着供需缺口的增加，巴基斯坦正面临着严重的能源危机。

巴基斯坦拥有巨大的能源产出，其产能为4672.5万吨石油当量（Mtoe）。从2018年的数据来看，巴基斯坦的太阳能、风能发电量分别达768GWh和988GWh。化石燃料约占巴基斯坦一次能源供应的80%。虽然清洁能源的潜力巨大，但是巴基斯坦仍极度依赖化石燃料。巴基斯坦在2018年进口了1378.2百万吨石油产品、749.2百万吨液化天然气和903百万吨煤炭，并为此支付了1078273万美元。如果减少能源进口，那么二氧化碳的排放和进口成本将减少；可再生能源发展将具有成本效益。

本文研究内容包括：（1）本文为巴基斯坦应用了基于MARKAL2的综合能源模型。（2）在2012-2040年期间，本文设定了不同的能源强度降低目标。（3）本文通过应用最终能源消耗、能源结构、总能源需求、燃料进口成本和CO₂排放量等影响因素，进行了能源强度消减目标为5%，10%，15%的情景分析。（4）本研究探讨并估计了进口燃料、能源结构、CO₂排放等各因素之间的长期关系。

Abstract:

The growing concerns related to energy demand, supply, energy security, and environmental issues encourage global awareness. The impact of energy imports, fuel cost, energy security, and CO₂ (carbon dioxide) emissions have become a severe issue for Pakistan which is strongly associated with social, economic and environmental development. In this study, we have estimated eleven energy security indicators for long-run energy supply by applying the MARKAL framework. Business as usual (BAU) and three energy import reduction scenarios (S-a, S-b and S-c) are estimated on primary energy supply, demand, and diversification of energy resources, imported fuel cost, CO₂ emissions, and energy security during 2012-2040. The outcomes show that primary energy supply will decrease marginally, while cumulative renewable energy would increase by 28%. Dependency on net energy import ratio will grow by 5.838 times, vulnerability index and net oil import ratio will decrease by -1.276 and -1.105 under base scenarios. Due to maximum fuel consumption by the transport and other sectors, the CO₂ emissions would increase by 407.49 Mt in 2040 which could be reduced by renewable energy resources. Finally, energy security and energy supply are optimal in the reduction scenarios which will lessen cost, CO₂, and energy supply. Related policies are given below.

Keywords: Energy security; CO₂ emissions; Energy import; Economic development