题目：加纳可再生能源发展：超越潜力和承诺(Renewable energy development in Ghana: Beyond potentials and commitment)

作者：Isaac Ankrah, 林伯强*

期刊：能源(Energy)

详细：198期，2020年5月，117356

DOI：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117356

文献导读：

《巴黎气候协定》所阐明的一个迫切需求就是世界必须摆脱化石燃料。那么，可再生能源的发展成为了每一个经济体的主要讨论议题。对于加纳来讲，议题主要集中在可再生能源开放，以及如何促进能源安全和电力供应。尽管政策制定者在2011年颁布了《可再生能源法》，但可再生能源发电规模并没有明显的扩大。太阳能只占当前发电组合的0.2%。水电占比尽管达到39.9%，但自2014年以来这一比例一直在大幅下降。更糟糕的是，加纳似乎正在逐步从水力发电向火力发电转变。

虽然《可再生能源法》揭示了对清洁能源发展的承诺，但它过于笼统，缺乏全面的实施计划。它只规定了两项主要政策措施的设计：上网电价和可再生能源购买义务。本文认为有必要讨论贸易、投资、金融深度等是否也对可再生能源的发展产生了影响。

在上述思路的基础上，本研究主要试图对加纳可再生能源（电力）发展的影响因素进行深入的研究。本文通过以下路径来实现研究：（1）本文提出了一个分析可再生能源决定因素的理论框架，然后利用向量误差修正模型和Johansen协整模型对这些决定因素进行估计。（2）本文对加纳在2015-2030年的可再生能源（电力）发展进行动态预测。（3）本文提出了关于加纳未来能源发展的相关政策建议。本文研究的结果和结论可推广到其他国家，特别是撒哈拉以南非洲国家，因为这些国家似乎有着类似的经济发展模式。

Abstract:

Considering the significance of renewable energy in the sustainable energy future discussion, it is important to understand its influencing factors in order to draw result implications for policy formulation. This study examines these influencing factors for Ghana in the context of an unimpressive renewable electricity scale-up amid the potentials and commitment. It proceeds to forecast the trend of renewable energy fifteen years after the sample period. The results, based on the application of the Vector Error Correction Model and Johansen co-integration technique, on a dataset covering 1980 to 2015, shows that Ghana's renewable electricity is mainly driven by foreign direct investment and trade openness, with real GDP per capita being inconsequential. What's more, both financial development and fossil fuel consumption undermine renewable energy development in Ghana. The dynamic forecast reveals an uninspiring future for renewable electricity, as generation will continue to plummet if conditions remain the same. In light of the findings, we recommend determinant-based policies anchored on the intentional handling of the appraised factors. One key contribution of this study is embodied in the fact that it makes the first empirical attempt in examining the determinants of renewable energy in Ghana.

Keywords: Renewable electricity; Ghana; Vector error correction model; Sustainable energy; Forecast