题目：基于加纳能源消费结构的碳排放以及可持续发展路径评估(Assessing Ghana's carbon dioxide emissions through energy consumption structure towards a sustainable development path)

作者：林伯强*，Stephen Duah Agyeman

期刊：清洁生产(Journal of Cleaner Production)

详细：238卷，2019年11月，117941

DOI：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117941

文献导读：

由能源利用产生的二氧化碳排放持续受到全世界的关注。许多国家做出大量努力来减少二氧化碳排放量以应对气候变化。其中两项重大尝试是《巴黎气候变化协定》和联合国可持续发展目标。在执行与《巴黎气候变化协定》承诺有关的政策框架时，所有国家需要确保在它们利用能源促进经济增长的同时减少二氧化碳排放量，这是一项挑战。

作为一个发展中国家，加纳对于能源具有很大的需求。近些年来，加纳的能源消费总量不断增加，GDP和二氧化碳排放也呈现不断增长的趋势。这引发一个问题，加纳能否在实现经济增长预期的同时，实现能源使用和二氧化碳排放增长放缓甚至下降，实现可持续发展呢？为了回答这个问题，首先要分析导致二氧化碳排放增长的主要因素。然后通过这些驱动因素的发展趋势推测能源消费结构的改变能否实现可持续发展。本文对能源消耗、经济产出和二氧化碳排放之间因果关系进行了分析，也对加纳是否存在环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）进行了检验，最终提出了相应的政策建议。研究结论有利于加纳政策制定者明确政策影响，从而制定出更加有效的政策，以实现《巴黎气候变化协定》中所做出的承诺。

Abstract：

The CO₂ emission that accompanies significant consumption of energy raises concern as for whether economies that require such path like Ghana can also achieve sustainable economic development. In this paper, the driving factors of energy-related CO₂ emissions and its future trend for Ghana is studied using a time series data spanning from 1980 to 2016 in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with Extended Kaya Identity framework. First Kaya identity was adopted and extended to decomposed CO₂ emission driving factors into carbon intensity, energy intensity, economic activity, and substitution effect. The estimates were further used to forecast CO₂ emissions through to 2030. The results indicate the major driver for historical CO₂ emissions increase in Ghana has been the transition from biomass to petroleum fuel consumption. This is followed by the energy intensity of economic output, carbon intensity changes and overall economic activity. Carbon-free energy consumption currently does not lead to a reduction of CO₂ in Ghana. The forecasting results show the current trend of energy consumption and economic development path have the potential for CO₂ emissions reduction. Some targeted policy suggestions in relation to the estimate results are also provided.

Keywords: Kaya identity; ARDL model; CO₂ emissions; Substitution effect; Energy intensity; Carbon intensity