题目：新兴经济体显著增长的可持续性(The sustainability of remarkable growth in emerging economies)

作者：李江龙，林伯强*

期刊：资源、节能与可循环（Resources, Conservation and Recycling）

详细：145卷，2019年6月，349-358页

DOI：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.01.036

文献导读：

新兴经济体包括阿根廷、孟加拉国、巴西、保加利亚、智利、中国、哥伦比亚、匈牙利、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、墨西哥、巴基斯坦、秘鲁、菲律宾、波兰、罗马尼亚、俄罗斯、南非、泰国土耳其，乌克兰和委内瑞拉。在过去几十年中，新兴经济体的增长引人注目。1990年至2014年间，新兴经济体的GDP年增长率为4.65%（以2011年不变的国家价格计算），2000年之后，增长率甚至上升至5.85%。。然而，有证据表明新兴经济体的显著增长可能是由过多的要素投入和更大的污染排放容忍度所驱动的。新兴经济体的资本和劳动力增长率远高于发达经济体，特别是，新兴经济体的能源投入和二氧化碳排放量的增长与发达经济体的差异很大。

快速增长是以能源枯竭和环境退化为代价，还是依赖于包含能源和污染排放绩效的全要素生产率的可持续改进？本文试图对新兴经济体的可持续全要素生产率进行评估，并与发达经济体进行比较。本文的研究结论对新兴经济体的可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。如果新兴经济体的显著增长是以能源枯竭和环境退化为代价的，那么该发展模式就不可持续，因为这些经济最终会受到可持续性的限制。种种迹象表明，中国的可持续发展似乎受到能源枯竭和环境恶化的威胁。其他新兴经济体也可能存在类似现象。为了实现新兴经济体的可持续发展，关键是要维持经济增长、能源节约和环境保护之间的平衡。因此，提高可持续全要素生产率增长是一个国家可持续发展的关键途径。

Abstract:

The remarkable GDP growth along with the dramatic increases in energy consumption and pollution emissions in emerging economies raise the concerns for the sustainability of their development pattern. However, the precise role of how energy and environment contribute to economic growth in emerging economies is still unknown. This paper explores the sustainability of remarkable GDP growth in emerging economies by using non-radial directional distance function (NDDF) to identify the sustainable total-factor productivity (STFP) growth in the emerging economies and comparing it with that in developed economies. Our research extends previous literature by highlighting the roles of energy and environment in economic growth. The results raise the concerns on the sustainability of the remarkable GDP growth (especially after 2000) in emerging economies due to their slow STFP growth after excluding the contributions from energy and environment. Furthermore, it is also found that compared with developed economies, the slower STFP growth in emerging economies is mainly caused by their disadvantages in innovation, although they are able to utilize existing technology by catch-up effect. Besides, analysis from the group heterogeneity among Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America gives a better grasp of implications for stimulating the sustainable growth in emerging economies by promoting technology spillover from developed economies.

Keywords：Remarkable growth; STFP; Driving forces; Emerging economies