题目：尼日利亚可再生能源计划的有效性、替代潜力及其对国家产出的影响（On Nigeria's renewable energy program: Examining the effectiveness, substitution potential, and the impact on national output）

作者：林伯强*，Issac Ankrah

期刊：能源（Energy）

详细：167卷,2019年1月15日，1181-1193页

DOI：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.11.031

文献导读：

尼日利亚作为一个增长导向型国家，工业化进程处于早期阶段，能否将其经济建立在可再生能源之上？是否有可能从目前不可再生的主导电力系统转向无污染的可再生能源电力系统吗？可再生能源和不可再生能源是如何影响尼日利亚经济的？这些是尼日利亚可再生能源计划值得讨论的关键问题。

本文首先确定两种能源类型（可再生能源和不可再生能源）之间的可替代性水平，然后分析与尼日利亚可再生能源发展相关的各自挑战，以帮助决策者在可持续能源领域做出合理的决策。本文的研究目标包括:第一，实证评估可再生能源和不可再生能源对尼日利亚国民产出的影响；第二，提供不可再生能源和可再生能源之间的产出和替代弹性的估计；第三，结合实证结果和尼日利亚经济，探讨可再生能源发展面临的挑战和成效。最后，提出尼日利亚未来能源发展的相关政策建议。

本文不仅对能源消费总量的趋势进行预测，而且对跨时期存在的要素间和燃料间替代水平进行预测。根据对与可再生能源相关的主要问题的估计、论证（从生产角度），这项研究为尼日利亚可再生能源政策研究提供一个新角度，尤其是研究可再生能源计划在解决能源贫困、减少排放和促进经济增长方面的作用，有助于深入了解朝着可再生能源发电系统发展，同时保持确保经济发展和碳排放减少的可能性。

Abstract:

Considering the objectives of Nigeria's Renewable Energy Program, three basic questions are asked in this study: Can Nigeria really build its economy on renewable energy? Is it possible to substitute nonrenewable energy for renewable energy? What is the impact of renewable energy on the economy? This study primarily analyzes renewable energy development in Nigeria. Among other things, we estimate the economic impact, output elasticity, and the substitution possibilities of both renewable and nonrenewable energies. Our findings, based on a dataset from 1980 to 2015, in the framework of the translog production function, show that capital and labor are the main drivers of output in Nigeria; however, the economic impact of both energy types (renewable and nonrenewable) are insignificant, even though positive. With output and substitution elasticities being positive, this study confirms the possibility of moving towards a renewable power generation, but also highlights the limitation associated with such transition, citing inherent problems such as power density and scale, cost, and location. Based on Nigeria's economic and industrialization agenda, this study agrees with the respective strategies enshrined in the Renewable Energy Program but recommends that its implementation should be gradual and in accordance with Nigeria's economic goals.

Keywords: Nigeria; Economic growth; Renewable energy; Translog production function