题目：MINT能源消费、外商直接投资与经济增长的因果关系：来自动态面板OLS模型的证据（Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth for MINT: Evidence from panel dynamic ordinary least square models）

作者：林伯强*，Nelson Benjamin

期刊：清洁生产（Journal of Cleaner Production）

详细：197卷，2018年10月1日，708-720页

DOI：https://doi.org/10.1016/jjclepro.2018.06.152

文献导读：

认识和理解经济增长与能源消费之间的关系，对发达国家和发展中国家制定能源政策十分重要。已有研究表明，能源消费与经济增长之间存在着某种关联性，但目前这种关系还没定论，因为政策制定者和研究人员仍然不确定一个国家的能源消费是怎么促进其经济增长的，或者假设所有其他经济变量保持不变，经济增长是如何反过来刺激能源消费的。尽管已有研究在分析外国直接投资对新兴经济体经济增长的影响时建立了许多计量经济学模型，但只有少数几个研究检验了经济指标之间的因果关系。考虑到国家人口众多、经济发展较为强劲，墨西哥、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚和土耳其四个发展中国家的经济增长与能源消费具有一定的代表性，是一个合适的研究案例。

文章以墨西哥、印尼、尼日利亚和土耳其为研究对象，采用动态面板OLS模型，考察了经济增长、能源消费和外国直接投资等因素之间的相互作用。具体地，文章对这些国家在1990-2014年的经济增长、能源消费和外国直接投资的相互作用进行了实证检验，并进一步估计这些因素之间存在的长期影响系数。

研究结果表明，第一，墨西哥经济增长、能源消费和外国直接投资之间存在双向因果关系。第二，印尼经济增长与能源消费之间、经济增长与外国直接投资之间皆存在双向因果关系，而其外国直接投资与能源消费之间则存在单向因果关系。第三，尼日利亚经济增长与能源消费、经济增长与外国直接投资之间存在双向因果关系，而外国直接投资与能源消费之间存在单向因果关系。第四，土耳其经济增长、能源消耗和外国直接投资之间存在双向因果关系。

Abstract:

This research examines the interactions between economic growth, energy consumption and foreign direct investment among other factors using a panel dynamic ordinary least squares model for Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey (MINT), because they are emerging economies, have large population and favorable demography with high expectation for strong economic growth. To make the analysis more homogenous, these interactions were examined for individual country and as a group from 1990 to 2014 and coefficients of their long run economic growth function estimated. There exist a bi-directional causal relationships between economic growth, energy consumption and FDI inflows for Mexico, a bi-directional causal relationships between economic growth and energy consumption, between economic growth and FDI inflows, and an uni-directional causal relationship from FDI to energy consumption for Indonesia. There also exist a bi-directional causal relationships between economic growth and energy consumption, between economic growth and FDI inflows, and an uni-directional causal relationship from FDI to energy consumption for Nigeria while Turkey had a bi-directional causal relationships between economic growth, energy consumption and FDI inflows. Global panel reveals that there exist a bi-directional causal relationships between economic growth and energy consumption, between economic growth and FDI inflows and an uni-directional causal relationship from FDI to energy consumption. Diversification of economy to improve labor productivity is encouraged and over reliance on fossil fuel should be minimized.

Keywords：Energy consumption; Economic growth; Panel dynamic OLS