题目：聚焦正确的目标：推动非水电可再生能源转型的经济因素（Focusing on the right targets: Economic factors driving non-hydro renewable energy transition）

作者：林伯强*，Oluwasola E.Omoju

期刊：可再生能源（Renewable Energy）

详细：第113卷，2017年12月，第52-63页

DOI：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2017.05.067

文献导读：

美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，全球碳排放量从1980年的184亿吨增加到2012年的327亿吨，增幅高达77.5％。为了应对全球气候变化和全球变暖的挑战，需要大幅减少二氧化碳排放量。而减少化石燃料的使用，同时促进清洁的可再生能源开发利用对缓解全球气候变化和实现可持续发展的目标至关重要。一个解决思路是在总能源结构中增加可再生能源的使用份额。目前，大多数发展中国家的可再生能源开发利用空间还很大。一个需要认清的事实是，在没有相应减少化石燃料能源消耗的情况下，仅仅增加可再生能源消耗将无法实现全球减排的气候目标。本研究对象主要侧重于非水电可再生能源在可再生能源总量中的份额。

为考察非水电源在总发电量中所占份额的驱动力，文章利用46个发达国家和发展中国家1980年至2011年的面板数据，采用动态固定效应估计(DFE)和面板协整模型，研究在短期和长期两个情景下影响非水电可再生能源在发电总量的占比的因素。

研究结果表明，不同因素对非水电可再生能源的规模和份额有不同的影响，且这些影响大多是长期的。油价上涨和金融发展对非水电可再生能源发电的数量和份额产生了显著的积极影响；贸易开放的影响是模糊的，经济发展扩大了非水电可再生能源的规模，但却削弱了其在总电力中的份额；外国直接投资、批准“京都议定书”、固定资本形成总额和资源租金对非水电可再生能源发电的影响不显著。

Abstract：

Reducing fossil fuels use while promoting the adoption of clean and renewable energy sources is crucial for mitigating climate change and attaining the sustainable development goals. This study investigates the driving forces of the share of non-hydroelectricity sources in total electricity generation. Using panel data of forty-six developed and developing countries over 1980–2011 and employing panel co-integration estimation techniques, we examine the key factors that influence the share of non-hydro renewable energy sources in the short and long run. The results of the study show that the driving factors have different impacts on the size and share of non-hydro renewable energy; and these impacts are mostly in the long run. Oil price increase and financial development has a significant positive effect on the amount and share of non-hydro renewable electricity generation. The impact of trade openness is ambiguous. Economic development enhances the size of non-hydro renewables but undermines its share in total electricity. Foreign direct investments, ratification of the Kyoto protocol, gross fixed capital formation and resource rent have no significant impact on non-hydro renewable electricity generation. Based on the results, appropriate policy recommendations are proffered.

Keywords: Renewable energy; Non-hydro electricity generation; Climate change mitigation; Panel co-integration