题目：尼日利亚的能源消耗、燃料间替代和经济增长（Energy consumption, inter-fuel substitution and economic growth in Nigeria）

作者：林伯强*，Philip Atsagli

期刊：能源（Energy）

详细：120卷，2017年2月1日，675-685页

DOI：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.11.115

文献导读：

尼日利亚已探明原油储量居非洲第二，世界第十，以油为主的资源禀赋导致了尼日利亚严重的石油依赖。尼日利亚的石油主要用于工业、运输和发电部门，尼日利亚79%的电力来自石油，21%来自水力发电。数据显示，尼日利亚的电力总是供不应求，只有41%的人能够在长时间停电情况下使用电力。尽管尼日利亚的二氧化碳排放、环境问题与能源消耗是一个重要问题，但关于清洁能源替代的研究还很少。

由于能源使用而产生的CO₂和污染物排放对全球变暖和尼日利亚环境污染的影响不容忽视。各利益相关者呼吁应采取各种政策，利用更清洁的能源来控制环境问题，但这些政策没有得到实施。如何缓解环境问题、降低能源消耗，是能源部门面临的巨大挑战。作者认为，能源部门需要以适中的价格为所有公民提供能源，并开发更清洁的能源来代替化石燃料。

本文主要回答以下几个问题：（1）本文研究了尼日利亚能源经济中各种要素间和燃料间替代的可能性，分析如何实现环境保护、经济增长和能源安全。（2）本文研究了能源和投入要素的替代弹性。（3）本文分析了能源改革的政策如何促进清洁能源有效利用并控制二氧化碳排放。（4）本文构建了面向能源的可计算的一般均衡(CGE)模型来评估能源相关政策的影响。

Abstract：

Nigeria's energy mix has been dominated by petroleum with a year on year increase due to huge petroleum subsidy by the government. This study adopts the trans-log production function to investigate the potential for inter-factor and inter-fuel substitution between capital, labor, petroleum and electricity. Ridge regression has been adopted to estimate the model's parameters due to evidence of multicollinearity in the data. The results show that all input pairs are substitutes; and as such, adopting competitive pricing policies and removal of petroleum subsidies and price ceilings would redirect industries towards an increased use of electricity and increase capital and labor intensiveness. In addition, the study shows that a 5% and 10% increase of investment in petroleum reduction technologies for the period 2010, 2011 and 2012 would reduce CO2 emissions by 1.13518, 1.8554, 1.2722 and 2.27119, 2.37109, 2.49444 million metric tons respectively. Furthermore, the study points to evidence for convergence in relative technical progress among the various input pairs with electricity registering the fastest rate. These imply that petroleum would gradually lose its dominance in Nigerian energy mix.

Keywords: Energy economy; Energy substitution; Factor substitution; Nigeria